Telsa going private

[RippyD]

Maybe not the right place for this. I'm partially venting and also curios about what others think. I'm open to changing my opinion.

I'm on the waiting list for Telsa 3. Haven't pulled the trigger b/c I want the all-wheel-drive which isn't available yet. I'm sort-of on the fence because of the cost and because I'm not sure Tesla is going to be around in 5 years (they're not profitable). But I very much want to get off gas for my next car, Tesla is U.S. made, and they're have very cool technology. So I could see taking a chance.

Now Elan Musk is talking about going from public to private. I get this - too much financial scrutiny and other issues for a company not making money. It looks like the Saudi sovereign wealth fund is going to come up with the money. This fund us owned by the Saudi government, which is essentially the Saudi Royal Family. So the Saudi royal family would be the de-facto owners of Tesla.

My reaction is that this doesn't work for me. IMO, Saudi Arabia is an oppressive regime that treats woman and non-Shia Islamists terribly. There's a major Shiite problem in Saudi Arabia. I believe (and hope) the gender problems are well known. And even worse, imo, was the involvement in helping to foster terrorism. Maybe they're past that now. I'm not sure how we could be sure.

I'm refrain from using the language here that wants to come flying off my fingers. There's no way I'm going to intentionally give the Saudi Royal family any of my money.

One alternative perspective is that since Tesla is losing money on every car, buying one from the Saudis costs them money rather than makes them money. If the don't become profitable they're essentially funding a discount to Tesla buyers.

Open to any opinions. Right now I see a Bolt, Volt, or Leaf in my future rather than a Tesla.

 

[glen e]

I'm not gonna fight the Geopolitical battle, and tesla going private is fine with me, elon just does not want the daily public battle he fights every day. It may make them even a bit more innovative… And they better get innovative, because there's a whole slew of competition coming in the next two or three years.

Two of my doctor friends have teslas, and they wouldn't buy another one. Strictly because of the service situation. They run Tesla service centers that are few and far between, one in Miami one up here in Fort Lauderdale, and parts are taking 2 to 3 months, in some cases… Not acceptable.

 

[RippyD]

No doubt better for Tesla to not be public right now for many reasons.

For me this isn't about geopolitics - it's about human rights. Woman in Saudi Arabia essentially can't make any decisions without approval from a male guardian. If woman is raped in Saudi Arabia she can't file a police report without approval from a male guardian. The police simply won't talk to her. Same for domestic violence victims. Women can't choose what clothes to wear, swim in public, or do many other things we take for granted in free (or partially free) societies. You want your money going to a government that doesn't allow women to even report rape on their own?

I can go down the religious path too. Just terrible behavior on the part of the Saudi government.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

You can make the human rights argument to some extent against China, too, can't you? And I'm sure a number of other countries of origin that you may come across in your shopping. I'm against Tesla for a different reason...what if I want to make a long trip? If it's just for commuting, fine, but I'd want a plug-in hybrid if it was my only car.

 

[glen e]

You can make the human rights argument to some extent against China, too, can't you? And I'm sure a number of other countries of origin that you may come across in your shopping. I'm against Tesla for a different reason...what if I want to make a long trip? If it's just for commuting, fine, but I'd want a plug-in hybrid if it was my only car.

Agreed, I have a lot of connections to a few car companies from being in the industry for 30 years, and everybody agrees you can't do a full electric car unless you do two things for it to go full volume. It has to have a range of 300 to 350 miles, and can recharge within a half hour. Those are the goals. Porsche is coming close with the new Taycan, it charges on a standard charge 60 miles in 4 minutes…The goal is to have a full charge take no longer than what it would take to fill it up with gas…

 

[RippyD]

I have similar issues with China. I also go out of my way to not buy products produced in China. Impossible or impractical to not get some stuff from China, or with parts from there, but I try. I would also not buy a Chinese made car.

Regarding the charging, I agree only having electric would be tough. There's a good network of chargers along most major highways now, but still a risk. Tesla makes this pretty easy to map out a trip based on charging.

I think the Volt has the best solution: 100% battery until it needs more juice, then a gas powered generator. Let's you go all electric for most commuting and also capable of long trips.

 

[mk9750]

I refuse to talk politics, so I'll refrain from that.

But my hope was that by now hydrogen technology would be at least as prevalent as all-electric. That's the direction I wanted to go. In fact, I bought a 2003 vehicle with the plan that it would be my last internal combustion car. Boy was I wrong.

I don't like the electric alternative. I don't see that as a viable way to reduce either our dependence on fossil fuels, nor our need to reduce CO2 emissions. At least until we return to nuclear power again (or find some still unknown source of electric supply).

As for Elon Musk, although it is fair to say I am not following the story, the headlines have made me jump to the conclusion that he's manipulating the stock price with his announcements. If I am right, he may well go to jail.

 

[RippyD]

By hydrogen, you mean fuel cells? I recall that GM spent years working on fuel cell technology and I expected to see something. Guessing that didn't pan out?

Electric could possibly be ok without nuclear. I pay extra for my electricity to get "green" electric. Of course I have no way to know that my electrical usage is being offset by generation from a wind farm 100 miles away, but that's what the electric company claims. That data says we can make a dent with wind and solar, but we can't replace our other forms of production.

I think storage technology will help quite a but. When we get enough private or community electric storage in place peak demand for generation will drop significantly. That means we can get by with much less generation capacity. We're probably 20 years away from this happening, unfortunately (in the U.S.).

 

[glen e]

In 5-7 years, there will be electric and gas, no hybrids.....virtually all mfrs have said that. Batt tech will make some huge breakthrus very soon, esp the time it takes to charge. You can't have charging stations all over the United States, even if one was outside your house, if it takes hours and hours to charge, that will just overload the system and you can't put 100 chargers in front of a Starbucks…Like I said above, charging needs to take the same time it takes to fill up with gas for it to penetrate Mr. and Mrs. middle America, not just the eclectic west coasters or early adopters…

 

[Bruno Soares]

The AWD Model 3 is available already. I test drove the performance model at lunch today. Damn that's a quick car. And nimble too, felt nicer to drive than the Model S.

 

[RippyD]

Interesting... haven't checked the Telsa site lately. Going there now...

Back. Still no Model 3 test drives available in my city. It has me at 2-4 months to get one. Fully loaded AWD is $78,500. Take off the performance package and it's $73,500. Take off another $8K if I drop both enhanced and auto pilot and full self driving. No point in not getting all the auto-driving features imo, so that's not something I would drop. I can add both of the these for an additional $3K.

Assuming they tax rebate is still available when I got mine I'd be at $66K net to me without the performance option.

 

[LSNAutoDetailingLSNAutoDetailing is verified member.]

I thought his comment on Twitter was just that, an off-comment on twitter. Hard to take a company like that privately if you don't have the capital, and that is what the SEC is trying to figure out. On a recent news article, the SEC is took his statement very seriously and is asking where that cash going to come from. SEC stated it's somewhat illegal for a company leader to make financial comments like that.

My concerns about Tesla is the long haul. Musk seems to be a fly by the seat of your pants millionaire (billionaire??). The issues I have, which is why I'd never buy one is the ranging question, is Tesla really a car company or a software company who's software is deployed to cars. The car is completely dependent on the proprietary software. It's not like you can pop into any mechanics shop and get something sorted out.

Tesla controls it's parts very tightly, especially anything that it's software controls. You can't do your own repairs, (although few are starting too and go on Youtube...) and they won't sell you parts. The batteries, while powerful are extremely dangerous. If the vehicle is in an accident, totaled vehicles usually sit for a very long time before Tesla reclaims them from junk yards. This is causing a huge issue with environmentalists, with batteries sitting in fields exposed to all kinds of weather, etc. I can only paraphrase what I've read and seen on You Tube. Regular vehicles can be drained of fluids, crushed and recycled. Parts can come off and go to shops for discounted repairs.

Getting back to the software, updates are made on the fly from the company, see the recent article of Model 3's getting shorter braking distances after customer complaints. Bang, overnight the change was pushed out to unsuspecting owners... All of a sudden you get in the vehicle and things have changed over-night, including driving characteristics. These are items that should go out by way of recalls, notices or even TSB's. What happens when Tesla thinks it's time for you to upgrade to a new model like Apple did with the iPhone??

While I realize software runs most of all our modern day car functions, it's a static flash. Meaning, Ford can't come in over night and change my car overnight.
Then there is the future. The guy at the helm.... he's definitely a genius, but what is the future of for Tesla... That's what the SEC is trying to find out.

I'll pass on a Tesla, I love the idea, thanks, but no thanks.

 

[RippyD]

Agree that that are applying a software licensing model to a car. And most of their decisions about repairs are repellent to me. Like an Apple device (imo), you have to fully jump on board or there's no point. FYI, I very intentionally don't own any Apple devices.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

I think the Volt has the best solution: 100% battery until it needs more juice, then a gas powered generator. Let's you go all electric for most commuting and also capable of long trips.

That's my vote.

...But my hope was that by now hydrogen technology would be at least as prevalent as all-electric. That's the direction I wanted to go. In fact, I bought a 2003 vehicle with the plan that it would be my last internal combustion car. Boy was I wrong.

My understanding was that most hydrogen comes from methane (CH4)...no idea where the carbon goes in the process. You can make hydrogen out of water but it's very energy intensive which defeats the purpose.

I don't like the electric alternative. I don't see that as a viable way to reduce either our dependence on fossil fuels, nor our need to reduce CO2 emissions. At least until we return to nuclear power again (or find some still unknown source of electric supply).

Yeah, we're doomed.

By hydrogen, you mean fuel cells? I recall that GM spent years working on fuel cell technology and I expected to see something. Guessing that didn't pan out?

I'm not sure about GM, but Hyundai and Honda are selling fuel cell vehicles, I believe Toyota, also. Limited markets though, you have to have hydrogen stations to go to. I think it's just CA.

In 5-7 years, there will be electric and gas, no hybrids.....virtually all mfrs have said that. Batt tech will make some huge breakthrus very soon, esp the time it takes to charge. You can't have charging stations all over the United States, even if one was outside your house, if it takes hours and hours to charge, that will just overload the system and you can't put 100 chargers in front of a Starbucks…Like I said above, charging needs to take the same time it takes to fill up with gas for it to penetrate Mr. and Mrs. middle America, not just the eclectic west coasters or early adopters…

Are you saying no "plug-in" hybrids? Because hybrids make sense to improve the efficiency of ICE vehicles. I'm skeptical that we are that close to having full charge times of five minutes, to restore a range of 2-300 miles...something's gotta get really hot to do that. You sound like you know, we'll see what happens. I guess it's time for me to go watch that hour-long YouTube of the industry talk show where they talk about the future of electric, that I've been putting off watching.

 

[RippyD]

Yeah, we're doomed.

Just looking at the data (I'm a data guy by profession), it doesn't look good. Leaving the politics out, the warming trend and the the increase is CO2 are both concerning. The hope that heat transfer of the atmosphere and surface are complex is ways we don't fully understand. So maybe it's more resilient. But for now it looks like the warmer parts of the planet are going to get increasingly uncomfortable going forward. No way to tell how far it will go.

EDIT: A least one dislike. Curious as to why. The data is the data and the trends are the trends. I'm not judging it one way or the other.