Thoughts on Tesla Roadster

custmsprty said:
Like a "really smart guy said today" on CNBC the business channel, all Tesla does is stuff more batteries in a vehicle. By the way, more batteries = higher cost and more weight.The cost per kilowatt hour is set, and in the long run, say 5-10 years, Tesla will get it's butt kicked by the big boys. And before you blow me up, take a minute and find how how many cars Tesla actually manufactures per year. It's not even a pimple on the bottom of the lowest auto producer. They are a non entity and their stock price is a joke. Their posted earnings, they are losing a negative - $8.63 per share, when the bottom comes, it will come fast! Gimme a freaking break! The Home Depot, a home improvement store earns $7.21 per share and pays a dividend too. Speculation is all tesla is about. The big boys are going to spank them over the next few years.
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Maybe, and I agree about Tesla's stock price. But the big guys are way behind. I think Musk is taking the long view, and if he keeps innovating at the same rate as the big guys (or faster), they won't catch him. If he runs out of money it will be a problem.

I believe this is an old-company/new-company problem. Musk is running a tech company that makes cars. The big guys guys are running car companies that are doing more tech. Fundamentally different approaches to problem solving. And looking at the cars, the big guys still aren't getting it.

Porsche made 237K cars in 2016 compared to 10M for GM and is arguably the most profitable car company. Huge numbers aren't required to be successful if demand remains high for every car you sell. Porsche missed the electric revolution as well, and has said as much.
 
MattPersman said:
We are talking all electric aren’t we? How would you rent a gas car there won’t be any


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I'm talking the present. Relax, Hilary isn't coming to take your guns and V8s yet.

The range problem won't be a range problem in 10 years. There will be gas cars for longer than that.
 
Well, I think some of you miss the point about Tesla. The major impact of Tesla will be down the road. To say that Tesla is a pimple on the bottom of the auto industry is obvious. However, pimples attract attention and can grow to boils and subsequently to cellulitis, etc. (How's that for an analogy!? Lol) If you look at Tesla now, in less than 10y, Tesla has gone from a concept to producing the fastest (acceleration) production sedan and SUVs in the country. It's not what they produce now, but what their innovation and engineering may produce in the future. The issue with the batteries may be improved with the Gigafactory. Imagine a train as fast as the hyperloop. The success is going to be measured by demand for the Model 3. That was always the plan: mass production. But you have to start somewhere.

But why hate on Tesla? The stock may be overvalued. Musk has said that several times.

But, I don't get it. It is an American company that makes cars in America by Americans.

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yakky said:
I'm talking the present. Relax, Hilary isn't coming to take your guns and V8s yet.

The range problem won't be a range problem in 10 years. There will be gas cars for longer than that.
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I’m on your side believe me. Electric is awesome but not super practical in the US the way we can see it today and into the probable 10 year future.

This is just a speculative thread anyways. Jag and Land Rover won’t be all 100% electric in the US any time soon. They are making far too much $ on easy selling SUV cross over things.

The main thing you will likely see is plug in hybrids and regular hybrids take a lot more steam. Possibly a small surge in diesels, GM is trying anyways since VW the champ had to step out.


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I'm a gearhead without a doubt but hybrids not only make sense but ADD to performance, a win win IMO

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Tesla cars are sort-of disruptive technology. I say sort-of because it meets all the requirements for being disruptive with the exception of eroding an existing market from the bottom up. Tesla is disrupting the market in the top segment, not the bottom. Those of you interested in business may want to read Clayton Cristensen's books.

There are countless examples of this. One of his best ones is how steel is made in the U.S. Big steel companies gave up the bottom end to "mini mills." 10-15 years the big mills were becoming obsolete. I work for a large tech company and I've seen this play out first-hand. You give up a market segment to an upstart because you can't see the margin in it. A few years later they're spanking you right in fat part of your revenue stream. Big car companies will discount Tesla and it's appeal at their own peril.

Tesla is doing about 50% production growth per year. 2018 could be a 100-150% year of Model 3 production gets going. Even if not, at 50% growth they'll be at 750K cars per year in 5 years.

I don't see how/why electric infrastructure will be an issue. It will adapt and grow as demand increases. It most cases it will have to - as a utility most electric companies won't have a choice. Consider also that if/when Tesla figures out how to seamlessly use the car battery to power peak loads in a home, the electric problem gets better, not worse.
 
I'm a simpleton for sure, so take this into consideration here. There's a ton of coal in the ground to fire those plants that produce electricity, but yet its deemed "too dirty", so where is the power going to come from for all these cars in the future? Build it and they will come but don't just say solar panels, remember Salindra....well, I do, our money was literally thrown into the fire. Maybe figure out a way to make the coal plants to run cleaner to power all these plants and put some more Americans to work, those who can do that job, not everyone can be Einstein out there!
 
That's a great question. But the optimist in me sees it this way: in developed countries like the US, power generally isn't the problem. Peak power is the problem. There's zero storage in our grid so power generation has to be built for max capacity. If you could start adding some local storage to the grid, like an electric car battery that runs the house during peak hours, or at least part of the house, you get a more stable grid that has lower demand on average because the peaks and valleys get smoothed out. So I think it could partially be it's own solution. Not sure if this will happen.

Burning more coal is obviously a bad option in terms of pollution. Don't have a good answer for that. Rooting for more solar, wind, and stable, manageable fusion.
 
But what about the 9 1/2 hours it takes to charge a 300 mile battery on 240vac


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Am I the only one doubting the 250 mph top end? I'll believe it when I see it.
 
MattPersman said:
But what about the 9 1/2 hours it takes to charge a 300 mile battery on 240vac


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This.

Even with a supercharger, it takes me about 45 minutes to fully charge. Fine, I can go have lunch while it charges. But for commercial industry or those who are time sensitive, this is the big problem to overcome.

If you have only a 300 mile range but could supercharge in 5 minutes and chargers were as common as gas stations, I don't think it would be long before EVs would be widely adopted. Until then, I think EVs will be common, but only in a small market.

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kevincwelch said:
This.

Even with a supercharger, it takes me about 45 minutes to fully charge. Fine, I can go have lunch while it charges. But for commercial industry or those who are time sensitive, this is the big problem to overcome.

If you have only a 300 mile range but could supercharge in 5 minutes and chargers were as common as gas stations, I don't think it would be long before EVs would be widely adopted. Until then, I think EVs will be common, but only in a small market.

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Invent a time machine and go ask someone in 1930 if they thought that cars would travel 500+ miles on a tank of gas getting 30-40mpg and do it reliably for over a hundred thousand miles and they would laugh at you. Like everything else, innovation will eventually make it smaller, faster, and more reliable.
 
I didn't have time to read the whole thread...this is what I wonder, from a common sense standpoint (at least what seems like common sense to me). If to 90% of drivers, a car is just an appliance...which gets...let's just say, 20 MPG. And then you can have a Prius, which maybe even appliance drivers think is too much of an appliance, which gets about 50 MPG. It seems like you should be able to make a hybrid car which appliance drivers would like that would get 35 MPG. I bet the appliance drivers wouldn't even notice their car was making it's own electricity.

I personally think hybrids and plug-in hybrids have great potential, but one major problem is the 90% don't even understand what a hybrid car is. A friend of mine who I've rebuilt engines with, who has pulled engines and rears from cars, thought a regular hybrid like a Prius needs to be plugged in.
 
Setec Astronomy said:
I didn't have time to read the whole thread...this is what I wonder, from a common sense standpoint (at least what seems like common sense to me). If to 90% of drivers, a car is just an appliance...which gets...let's just say, 20 MPG. And then you can have a Prius, which maybe even appliance drivers think is too much of an appliance, which gets about 50 MPG. It seems like you should be able to make a hybrid car which appliance drivers would like that would get 35 MPG. I bet the appliance drivers wouldn't even notice their car was making it's own electricity.

I personally think hybrids and plug-in hybrids have great potential, but one major problem is the 90% don't even understand what a hybrid car is. A friend of mine who I've rebuilt engines with, who has pulled engines and rears from cars, thought a regular hybrid like a Prius needs to be plugged in.
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You don't need a hybrid to get 35mpg. Look at an Altima, low 40s on a regular ICE. I think the Malibu gets there as well.

What most people don't get is how awesome electric is, efficiency aside. Even the slowest EV has 200+ ft-lbs at 0 rpm. And there is zero delay, no transmission downshifting, no engine to rev, no turbo to spool, it just happens.

The most amazing thing is how many people have an opinion about electrics and have never even ridden in one.
 
yakky said:
You don't need a hybrid to get 35mpg. Look at an Altima, low 40s on a regular ICE. I think the Malibu gets there as well.

What most people don't get is how awesome electric is, efficiency aside. Even the slowest EV has 200+ ft-lbs at 0 rpm. And there is zero delay, no transmission downshifting, no engine to rev, no turbo to spool, it just happens.

The most amazing thing is how many people have an opinion about electrics and have never even ridden in one.
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I know there are conventional cars that get 35 mpg, but I'm talking about around town, and about taking cars that only get 20 (or less) and bumping them up to an "acceptable" range. I mean who wouldn't want that if there wasn't any noticeable difference to the driving experience of the car and any cost increase was paid back by less fuel use or increased resale value? I mean as much as people complained about incandescent light bulbs being phased out I never hear anybody say "boy I hate these LED light bulbs that last 10 times as long and use 15% of the energy". (expecting ensuing flame war about LED bulbs and hybrid cars)

I could never see myself having an electric (primary) car, unless "refueling" becomes as fast (pretty much) as filling up your gas tank. I mean it's ok if your Tesla gets 275 miles on a charge, and you never drive more than say 200 miles a day and can charge up overnight, but it's a little different if you're going to a relative's for Thanksgiving who lives 150 miles away and has no capability to charge your car while you're there.

But I can definitely see myself getting a plug-in hybrid. (expecting flame war about how I'm not "saving the planet" by doing that...I just want something that gets more than 30 mpg around town and doesn't drive like a golf cart)
 
Driving distance per charge and charging times are obviously a problem for long trips. But for a daily driver electric is fine - work, stores, and school and able to charge overnight. And I agree that you really need to experience it. Even a lowly Leaf is an impressive acceleration experience relative to a gas engine. A Tesla will make your Porsche feel slow.
 
FUNX650 said:
”America's Electric Light and Power"
(Ad for Self-Driving Future Cars) ca.1957

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”In the year 2525; if man is still alive;
If woman can survive; they may find...”
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Uh oh...is it now going to be 2019?!?!

GM Cruise is a fully autonomous electric car with no steering wheel - Business Insider


Bob
 
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