loudog2
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- Aug 5, 2008
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Don't be a buzz killer. No one likes a debbie downer on the forum
. How is the market these days. I was at the Chicago Mercantile exchange for 11 years. I started getting gray hair at 23 years old.My Thoughts On The Economy....
- Thread starter trhland
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. How is the market these days. I was at the Chicago Mercantile exchange for 11 years. I started getting gray hair at 23 years old.Far as I know Scott (killr), myself and one other are the only ones I Know on here in financials. Don't go by the recent ent ralley, its a farce, we will test the previous lows again pry soon and break through support level. I'm not a downer but a realist, mainly b/c of the nature of part of my biz where I deal directly in the capital markets, I see what's really going on way over what's reported on the news. When I say we are screwed, I mean we are royally f'd. Just wait till the CRE market collapses which we are just starting to see hints of and inflation will be a b!tch as sell. Problem is our gov is just retarded, they can't even implement correct strategies, the 1st bailout was supposed to be for bad assets, well it went to banks and guess when, didn't do sh!t, didn't increase lending capacity (banks must lend, no lending = no biz/money) and actually lending got stricter across the board. Only now their planning on it again to buy bad assets problem is their still having an issue of how to evaluate worth of the asset classes and structure. And going back to the bailouts quite a few banks couldn't even show where the money went, Citi even said they couldn't talk about a slap to the face. I have clients whoses businesses are still strong and cashflowing well but now their getting hurt b/c biz credit lines are being pulled, called in, or limited. And some of these were revoling facilities over 1m and never late and always paid on time, hurts the bottom line of the business now. Everything the gov is doing is doing nothing but hurting small biz which is the backbone of this country. Take AIG, what they should have done is start seperating the company and liquidating off the strong units which AIG does have, its really the CDS division that is hurting the company, Schiff even said the same thing and companies were interested in acquiring the other divisions, but no gov rather keep afloat as one unit and keep throwing money at a black hole, nothing will happen unles
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* damn my post got cut off on my phone lol, so to continue:
the company is liquidated with the strong units that are there but CDS exposure overwhelms every other division.
Just to show how dumb our country really is, any of you aware that around Sept 11th 2001 we suddenly had trillions go missing, I mean as in 'poof'. Till this day the pentagon and gov still don't know what happened or where the money went and admitt to it. Maybe someone should have trained them to use Quicken
the company is liquidated with the strong units that are there but CDS exposure overwhelms every other division.
Just to show how dumb our country really is, any of you aware that around Sept 11th 2001 we suddenly had trillions go missing, I mean as in 'poof'. Till this day the pentagon and gov still don't know what happened or where the money went and admitt to it. Maybe someone should have trained them to use Quicken
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Showroom Shine
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- Apr 19, 2007
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:whs: I agree with you. I am not particapating in this at all. I refuse to to speak that into my life. I'm doing GREAT! Thank God! Business is picking up too,and it's not even warm yet!
supercharged
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- Mar 7, 2006
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yeah, because those people were purchasing $500,000 houses when they can barely afford to pay rent...All the wanted to do was resell, and speculate - make more money by raising the prices...Now on the bailouts, bank executives don't really like 90% tax on their bonuses. I like it! No more money left for them to spend on prostitutes. I hate to say this, but that's all they do with that extra cash...They are not purchasing a Ferrari and hiring Paul Dalton to detail it, they are not purchasing Zymol Solaris, but just more women...
I'm not for an idea to give my money to an alcoholic neighbor, spreading my wealth, but I'm all in to spread those bonuses. Executives make way too much money, and their bonuses need to be spread.
supercharged
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- Mar 7, 2006
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because they purchased to resell, not to lock payments. I purchased a house last year in June, and I don't give a crap if it falls down in price, I locked my monthly payments.
supercharged
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- Mar 7, 2006
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Surfer, be honest. Let's say you work on a commission and get 3%. If you sell a house for $100k you get 3, for $200k - 6, for $300k - 9; and so on. Of course in this case you will be pushing and telling your clients the price is gonna go up. That's one of the reasons many purchased a house - just to resell...And then what? Future generation will have to have several jobs just to make house payments? PRICE WILL NOT GO UP!
I'm not a realtor? Not sure what you mean by your post or what that had to do with mine lol? I'm in the commercial and business sector.
supercharged
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- Mar 7, 2006
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I was just speaking in general blaming realtors for initiating so called "price growth"...
Ahh ok, I was like huh?? lol. Biggest to blame isn't even the banks or lenders, its Wallstreet. To keep it short they basically said sell X product (lets say 100% financing for a W2 borrower with a 600 credit score) and we'll buy it, Wallstreet kept coming back with different securitized options and the lenders just sold what they were told to, chuck it on the secondary market or in portfolios. Almost be like owning a restaurant and not making hamburgers, and client after client coming in demanding hamburgers and finally you start making them. Realtors would be a part of the game, but it was speculation as a whole, you had the news constantly blaring buy now to get a slice of the growth etc. Most of the exotic products were securitized and sold, very few held in in-house portfolio. World Savings/Golden West was one of the few with the neg amm loan, funny part all these years before they never really had issues. The dumbest thing the market did was demand a stated product for a W2 wage earner, thats an oxymoron, your W2 you prove your income, most of these exotic products were all around before but specifically for self employed borrowers with complex pay schedules. Was only during the boom that was offered for W2 which if that hadn't happened, we wouldn't be near the mess we're in today as majority of loans defaulted are W2 stated products. And Wachovia made such a big mistake acquiring World at this point, that was like putting a gun to their head and pulling the trigger.
Another thing is this isn't only subprime, a huge portion is actually A paper borrowers but thats rarely mentioned or said. Banks have massive defaults on A paper clients, just showing the cluster f' we're in when the Crème de la Crème of clients are defaulting.
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ScottB
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- Mar 3, 2006
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unfortunately the realtors were helped by the banks which had the programs designed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are heavily screened by Wallstreet in the name of profit.
Some programs actually forbid or allowed no income verification and thus if the lendee offered they could afford the payment we could only approved based upon past credit history. Thus again the responsibility should and was layed upon the lendee to be honest, forthright, and responsible. And we all know the citizens and our neighbors did just that right ??
supercharged
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- Mar 7, 2006
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and that's the problem. Lendee knew that that his/her income wasn't really going to be verified, and they were purchasing new houses, one after another just for one reason - resell. Now in order for them to make money they would artificially raise the price. I knew a couple of guys that had 8 or more houses...Then I know another person that "made" $100k profit on one house, has the money in the bank, and now he lost $100k on another and thinking of letting the bank reposses it. Now wait a second, you just "STOLD" $100k from the country, why don't you compensate it from the money you already have? And there are many people like that. Well you know what, I think that kind of money need to be arrested, even if it means to get FBI involved, and RETURNED back to the country, not wasted on extra vacations going to Hawaii, or to Europe, or anywhere else.unfortunately the realtors were helped by the banks which had the programs designed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are heavily screened by Wallstreet in the name of profit.
Some programs actually forbid or allowed no income verification and thus if the lendee offered they could afford the payment we could only approved based upon past credit history. Thus again the responsibility should and was layed upon the lendee to be honest, forthright, and responsible. And we all know the citizens and our neighbors did just that right ??
And when the let banks repo the house, I've heard stories that some a$$holes where pouring liquid concrete/cement mix down the sewer...now that's totally f***ed up...
Bottom line - they should return the money back to the country. NO MORE BONUSES OR EXTRA VACATIONS...
useth4z
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- Jan 12, 2007
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How does the news make the economy worse? If anything, the news doesn't say enough about our plight. We really are screwed, we just haven't come to the realization yet. Just with Medicare and Social Security were are in a downward spiral. Add universal health care and the trillions to bail out everyone (and tax us all to pay for it).
People are just living withing their means now, after living excessively on all the things credit could buy. We will get used to living within our means before inflation takes off. That's when we'll really be rethinking what is important to us, because we are going to be trading down. Pasta vs steak, state college vs private college.
More retailers, local governments (maybe even California) and private universities are going to go under and general prosperity for all will decrease. We as a nation, peaked a long time ago. I believe we will have darker days both domestically and internationally because:
1) people don't realize the scope of our financial problems (bad assets, TARP, current obligations (SS and Medicare) and how other countries can pull the financial strings.
2) continue to be optimistic, that "things will work themselves out". "We've got real change with Obamanomics, you just have to give it time." Puh-leeze. The solution to more debt is more government and we know how efficiently that runs...
3) we do not have the will to take any preventative action before it's become a crisis.
People are just living withing their means now, after living excessively on all the things credit could buy. We will get used to living within our means before inflation takes off. That's when we'll really be rethinking what is important to us, because we are going to be trading down. Pasta vs steak, state college vs private college.
More retailers, local governments (maybe even California) and private universities are going to go under and general prosperity for all will decrease. We as a nation, peaked a long time ago. I believe we will have darker days both domestically and internationally because:
1) people don't realize the scope of our financial problems (bad assets, TARP, current obligations (SS and Medicare) and how other countries can pull the financial strings.
2) continue to be optimistic, that "things will work themselves out". "We've got real change with Obamanomics, you just have to give it time." Puh-leeze. The solution to more debt is more government and we know how efficiently that runs...
3) we do not have the will to take any preventative action before it's become a crisis.
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ScottB
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- Mar 3, 2006
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I dont believe alot of US citizens understand TARP currently and fail to see the benefits, some of which are detractions in my book.
First almost large banks were forced to take a piece of these funds to look well capitalized and provide a comfort to the american public. This money is a loan, or transferred to common stock, and in either case is being paid interest (5%) or dividends. Add in that if the stock moves upward (and financials are indeed up currently) then the american people will make a profit when sold or purchased back from the financial industry.
Right now there are numerous large banks that want to immediately pay back the money. Wells Fargo paid over 32 million in dividends last quarter for money it did not want/need. The other issue, they cannot give it back the govt has placed restrictions on paying it back while coming up with a new way to measure reserves and capitals to the worlds biggest banks.
While I dont believe our banking system will be nationalized, it sure looks as if govt has a hold of the industry and buying a piece thru backdoor policies. Look at Citibank, should it not have been allowed to fail or merged versus owned over 50% by government currently ?? Bear/Sterns was allowed the fail, Goldman Sachs wasnt, Wachovia was forced to merge, and BankAmerica called on carpet for purchasing Merrill Lynch after the govt suggested it.
First almost large banks were forced to take a piece of these funds to look well capitalized and provide a comfort to the american public. This money is a loan, or transferred to common stock, and in either case is being paid interest (5%) or dividends. Add in that if the stock moves upward (and financials are indeed up currently) then the american people will make a profit when sold or purchased back from the financial industry.
Right now there are numerous large banks that want to immediately pay back the money. Wells Fargo paid over 32 million in dividends last quarter for money it did not want/need. The other issue, they cannot give it back the govt has placed restrictions on paying it back while coming up with a new way to measure reserves and capitals to the worlds biggest banks.
While I dont believe our banking system will be nationalized, it sure looks as if govt has a hold of the industry and buying a piece thru backdoor policies. Look at Citibank, should it not have been allowed to fail or merged versus owned over 50% by government currently ?? Bear/Sterns was allowed the fail, Goldman Sachs wasnt, Wachovia was forced to merge, and BankAmerica called on carpet for purchasing Merrill Lynch after the govt suggested it.
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